Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal JECATS.
Exchange rates, trade-offs and risks in mitigation options for aviation
Klaus Martin Gierens
Abstract. A recently proposed method to mathematically treat trade-offs and associated risks in aviation mitigation options (Prather et al., 2025) leaves, to this author's opinion, many issues open for discussion. The method is critically reviewed and the equations are derived and justified. Issues that remained vague in the recent paper are clarified. Unfortunately, close inspection proves this method to be inadequate for its purpose. An alternative formulation is proposed with transparent and understandable derivations. The unfounded assumptions basic to the original method are discussed and their effects on the final result are shown. It turns out that with the current data basis the proposed risk-analysis method for mitigation in aviation suffer from a certain degree of arbitrariness. Alternative approaches that exploit ensemble weather forecasts seem more promising.
Received: 21 Apr 2026 – Discussion started: 08 May 2026
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Lessening of non-CO2 aviation impacts on climate is often accompanied by an increase of fuel consumption and emissions. Planning mitigation actions requires balancing the desired climate benefit against inevitable simultaneous climate damage. Due to uncertainty, statistical methods are needed to estimate the failure risk of concrete mitigation measures. This paper presents the required mathematics and assumptions, and points to research needs and alternative risk-aware strategies.
Lessening of non-CO2 aviation impacts on climate is often accompanied by an increase of fuel...
