A recently proposed method to mathematically treat trade-offs and associated risks in aviation mitigation options (Prather et al., 2025) leaves, to this author's opinion, many issues open for discussion. The method is critically reviewed and the equations are derived and justified. Issues that remained vague in the recent paper are clarified. Unfortunately, close inspection proves this method to be inadequate for its purpose. An alternative formulation is proposed with transparent and understandable derivations. The unfounded assumptions basic to the original method are discussed and their effects on the final result are shown. It turns out that with the current data basis the proposed risk-analysis method for mitigation in aviation suffer from a certain degree of arbitrariness. Alternative approaches that exploit ensemble weather forecasts seem more promising.