| 20 Apr 2026
Improving reanalysis weather for contrail validation by incorporating satellite observations
Abstract. Aviation-induced condensation trails (contrails) contribute significantly to anthropogenic radiative forcing. While navigational contrail avoidance has been proposed as a strategy to mitigate this climate impact, the operational viability of such maneuvers relies on the ability to verify their efficacy. Current verification methodologies often employ contrail models (such as CoCiP) driven by reanalysis weather data; however, these assessments are limited by the variable fidelity of the underlying meteorological datasets. In this work, we address this uncertainty by leveraging satellite observations to refine reanalysis estimates for specific contrail events. We demonstrate that this approach significantly improves the agreement between reanalysis data and in-situ measurements obtained from the IAGOS program, thereby offering a more robust framework for evaluating avoidance strategies.
Competing interests: As denoted by their affiliations, some authors are employed by Google LLC. Google is a technology company that sells computing and machine learning services as part of its business.
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