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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">JECATSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Journal of Environmentally Compatible Air Transport System Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">JECATSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">J. Env. Com. Air Transp. Sys. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">3053-9285</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/jecats-2026-13</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Can we achieve significant climate mitigation by optimising only for contrails?</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smretschnig</surname>
<given-names>Jakob</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6446-3039</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yin</surname>
<given-names>Feijia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6081-9136</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Piontek</surname>
<given-names>Dennis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Clément</surname>
<given-names>Joël</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Núñez Arribas</surname>
<given-names>Sergio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dahlmann</surname>
<given-names>Katrin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3198-1713</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Castino</surname>
<given-names>Federica</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7069-0356</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Grewe</surname>
<given-names>Volker</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8012-6783</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Delft University of Technology, Operations &amp; Environment, Delft, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Thales AVS, Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Jakob Smretschnig et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://jecats.copernicus.org/preprints/jecats-2026-13/">This article is available from https://jecats.copernicus.org/preprints/jecats-2026-13/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://jecats.copernicus.org/preprints/jecats-2026-13/jecats-2026-13.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://jecats.copernicus.org/preprints/jecats-2026-13/jecats-2026-13.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Contrail-avoidance is a widely studied measure to reduce the non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; climate effect of aviation. However, some mitigation gain is likely to be compromised through increased emissions (CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;, and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O) and their climate effect. Here, we analyse the impact of contrail-optimised flights on the overall net climate benefit. We evaluate more than 4,000 flights with large contrail impact traversing Northern Europe in 2023, each with two trajectory options: the filed trajectory submitted to the network manager and a contrail-optimised trajectory, allowing only vertical deviations and a maximum fuel penalty of 2%. Our model setup is based on the European Unions&apos;s non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework, modelling contrails with the contrail cirrus prediction model (CoCiP) and employing the algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) for NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O effects. This paper highlights three points: First, while 93% of contrail-optimised flights emit more NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; (on average +2.5%), they emit it at lower, less climate-sensitive altitudes, so only 65% of flights exhibit an increased NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; climate effect (+1.1%, measured in efficacy-weighted global warming potential over 100 years, EGWP100), with considerable spatial and daily variability. Second, we find a risk of only 2% that the net climate benefit is not achieved when optimising for contrails alone, whereas using forecast weather data poses a far greater risk, causing optimisation to fail in ~15% of cases. The net climate benefit, however, is reduced from &amp;minus;16.5% to &amp;minus;11.1%, measured in EGWP100, when including NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O effects in the evaluation. Third, we find that the results are consistent to the choice of climate metric, with net climate benefit rates of &amp;minus;11.1%, &amp;minus;12.4%, and &amp;minus;16.2% obtained for EGWP100, the average temperature response over 100 years (ATR100), and EGWP20, respectively. We conclude that savings attributed to contrail-avoidance under a hard constraint on extra fuel and considering flights with large contrail impact only, exceed the NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O penalties. We do, however, recommend further research that accounts for model uncertainties, in order to determine whether the clear dominance of contrail over NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; (and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O) effects identified here for contrail-optimised trajectories remains robust.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="42"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>SESAR Joint Undertaking</funding-source>
<award-id>101114785</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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